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09/01/2014
Central African Republic crisis: Djotodia future in balance
Central African Republic (CAR) interim leader Michel Djotodia is expected to face pressure to step down at a regional summit. His failure to quell violence between Christian and Muslim militias has prompted speculation that he may quit.
However, CAR officials say his resignation is not on the agenda at the Ceeac summit in neighbouring Chad. Seleka rebels staged a coup last March, installing Mr Djotodia as the country's first Muslim leader.
The then-President Francois Bozize, from CAR's majority Christian population, was forced into exile and the country has since descended into chaos. The UN has warned of an impending humanitarian disaster.
'Make way'
Ahmat Allami, secretary general of Ceeac (the Economic Community of Central African States), said the group would tell Mr Djotodia that his transitional government was not working.
"If you are incapable, if you are powerless in the face of the situation, make way for others who can do a better job," Mr Allami said in the Chadian capital, N'Djamena. "It may happen that Ceeac... cannot continue to support the transition." However, he added that "regime change" was not the goal of the meeting.
A source close to Mr Djotodia quoted by the Reuters news agency said that CAR leaders had run out of patience with him.
"It's finished for him now," said the source.
However, his spokesman told the BBC he would not be stepping down.
The BBC's Paul Wood in Bangui says that if he does resign, the effects would be unpredictable - it could take the steam out of the conflict, or trigger a power struggle engulfing the country in its worst violence yet.
French officials also quoted by Reuters said the summit would discuss various options for continuing the transition, including allowing the president of a National Transitional Council to take over or mandating Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye to run the country until elections.
Media consultant David Smith, who has worked in CAR and regularly visits the country, says the biggest problem is that nobody is in charge.
"Djotodia is the interim president but he's not the president of a country, he's the president of a small part of Bangui that doesn't extend very far beyond the military compound he lives in, so it's a free-for-all," the director of the Johannesburg-based Okapi Consulting group told the BBC's Newsday programme.
Although Mr Djotodia has officially disbanded the Seleka rebels, he has proved unable to keep them in check.
Their brutal actions have prompted Christians to form vigilante groups, sparking a deadly cycle of revenge attacks.
Mr Smith said that in the end Mr Djotodia's fate may be decided by Chad's leader Idriss Deby, who he described as CAR's "kingmaker".
Chad, which is providing the largest contingent to the African Union force in CAR, may also try to convince regional leaders to keep "the UN at arms' length" and stop it taking over the peacekeeping operation.
The AU has some 4,000 peacekeepers in the country and France has deployed 1,600 troops to try to end the violence.
More than 1,000 people have died in the past month alone and the number displaced has more than doubled, to nearly a million.
On Wednesday, the UN warned that measles had broken out at the airport in the capital, Bangui, where about 100,000 people are seeking refuge from clashes.
The UN says about half the population of Bangui - more than 500,000 people - have been driven from their homes and 2.2 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.
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